Portugal Grand Prix

2020 Portuguese Grand Prix Preview

Normal service was resumed at the Eifel Grand Prix last time out as Lewis Hamilton came home to take the chequered flag. After the early part of the Grand Prix had been dogged by bad weather, Mercedes’ Champion Elect climbed to the top of the podium ahead of Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo.

This weekend, Portugal makes a welcome return to the schedules for the first time in almost 25 years. It may only prove to be a brief stay but this revised 2020 calendar has given us some interesting venues and it will be fascinating to see who can rise to the top as we head down to the Algarve.

Race Winner

Lewis Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton

As you’ll know by now, we’ve now moved on from the outright markets which have disappeared after looking to be a foregone conclusion for some time. Instead, we’ve been skipping straight to the race winner options and, for Portugal this weekend, Lewis Hamilton is a red hot favourite at 4/9 with 888Sport and Unibet.

Heading the chasing pack is Hamilton’s Mercedes’ teammate Valtteri Bottas who can be claimed at 7/2 with Unibet and 888Sport once again while Max Verstappen is quoted at best odds of 9/2 with VBet.

Across the season, the sportsbooks have listed these three men as the only likely options in the winner’s market and that’s a fair assessment. Aside from Pierre Gasly’s surprise win in Italy, the top three have won ten out of eleven races with Hamilton claiming seven chequered flags.

If, however, you’d like to delve down beyond Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen, Sergio Perez is next on the list at 50/1 with 10Bet and SportPesa while Daniel Ricciardo is on offer at best odds of 66/1 with VBet.

There is the potential for some value here but we aren’t looking beyond the three favourites so let’s now move on and see what the side markets hold.

Side Bets

valtteri bottas

Valtteri Bottas

Valtteri Bottas started on pole in Germany last time out to continue Mercedes’ total dominance of the Fastest Qualifier market. The multiple Constructors Champion has claimed all eleven poles so far in this campaign and the odds setters expect that run to continue this week.

For the Portuguese Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton leads the way in the fastest qualifier betting at best odds of 1/2 with Betway and 10Bet while Bottas trails in second at 15/8 with VBet. Max Verstappen is the obvious third favourite at a top price of 10/1 with 10Bet and SportNation before the market starts to move out once again.

Behind the top three, Daniel Ricciardo is listed at best odds of 40/1 with Betway and RedZone while the same two bookmakers have Sergio Perez available at a top price of 50/1.

As we’ve seen throughout the season, the better value can lie in the fastest lap betting. During the campaign, Lance Stroll, Daniel Ricciardo and Carlos Sainz Junior have all gone round quickest although we have seen the favourites rise to the top on a more regular basis in recent GPs.

For Sunday in Portugal, Lewis Hamilton remains as favourite but he’s odds against at a best of 5/4 with Unibet and 888Sport. Next up is Valtteri Bottas at a top price of 5/2 with BetFred while Max Verstappen, who went round fastest in Germany last time out, is quoted at best odds of 3/1 with BetFred again.

The market moves out from here with Daniel Ricciardo at 20/1 with VBet, followed by Alexander Albon at 22/1 with 888Sport and Unibet. Moving through the pack, the former winners in this market are Lando Norris at 40/1 and Carlos Sainz at 50/1 - both with Betway.

The value could lie in this fastest lap option but let’s round up all of the markets that we’ve looked at in this preview.

Verdict

The Portuguese Grand Prix has returned to the schedules this year and it appears to purely be a stop gap in light of the issues with the original 2020 calendar. The last edition of the race took place in 1996 so none of the drivers involved this season will have taken part.

In the absence of any previous records or indicators to take into account, we can only go on form and recent results in this abbreviated campaign. Obviously, Lewis Hamilton has been the dominant driver once again and we do expect him to close out the 2020 campaign in some style.

It’s tempting to opt for Max Verstappen as he has a tendency to rise during the closing races but Hamilton is an obvious pick if you want to return a small profit. For better returns, we can use Mercedes’ likely dominance as we look for better value.

Valtteri Bottas has endured a mixed season but his start on pole in Germany suggests that he has enough to challenge his teammate in key areas so we’ll back the Mercedes number two for both fastest qualifier and fastest lap.

Best Bets

  • Lewis Hamilton to win the 2020 Portuguese Grand Prix at 4/9 with 888Sport
  • Valtteri Bottas to start on pole at 15/8 with VBet
  • Valtteri Bottas to record the fastest lap at 5/2 with BetFred